State Coal Industry (600188) Follow-up Analysis Report: Long-term Stability Forecast

State Coal Industry (600188) Follow-up Analysis Report: Long-term Stability Forecast

Core point of view As a leading coal company in East China, while stabilizing the production 武汉夜网论坛 capacity of Shandong headquarters, the company is actively expanding resources in domestic and overseas investors and other places. It is expected that production and growth sources will come in the next few years.

In the context of profitability restoration, the estimated advantage is obvious.

At the same time, the company’s equity incentives introduced at the end of last year and the recent increase in H-share holdings by major shareholders have sent signals to the market that they are optimistic about the company’s long-term value.

The coal leader in East China, domestic and foreign, multi-sector layout is successful.

As a coal leader in East China, the company has 117 coal resources in Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Australia.

With 3.9 billion tons, it has abundant resource reserves and can make full use of 杭州夜网论坛 two domestic and foreign markets to increase the company’s scale of transportation and sales.

At the same time, the company actively expanded the business sectors of new coal chemical industry, transportation logistics and equity participation in financial institutions, and achieved better synergy effects.

The remaining grain in the coal sector is expanding, and the second phase of the coal chemical project will be put into production soon.

The company began to enter the capacity expansion period in 2017, mainly from the commissioning and acquisition of high-quality Australian coal assets in Inner Mongolia’s large advanced mines. In 2018, coal production and sales increased by more than 17%.

It is estimated that there will be room for increase in production in Inner Mongolia mining area and Yancoal Australia in 2019.The company’s output growth rate can be more than 6%, the output will exceed 100 million tons, and the net profit increased or increased.
600 million.

At the same time, the company’s second-stage coal chemical projects in northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia will soon be put into production, and it is also expected to contribute new performance increases.

The dazzling dividend yield, equity incentives and increased holdings of Hong Kong stocks demonstrate the long-term confidence of shareholders and major shareholders in the past.

In 2018, the company continued to maintain a dividend rate of more than 30%, with a corresponding dividend rate of more than 5%, leading the sector.

At the same time, as part of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the company launched an equity incentive plan in December last year. At present, it is basically close to the exercise price level. From the perspective of incentives, it also has the motivation to continuously increase shareholder value.

Recently, the company announced that Yankuang Group, a shareholder of Yankuang, increased its H-shares by 97 million shares in Yankuang Hong Kong, accounting for approximately 1% of Yancoal’s total share capital.

97%, reflecting the company’s major shareholders’ long-term confidence in the recognition.

Risk factors: Yancoal Australia’s profit exceeds expectations due to changes in overseas coal prices.

Yield release is expected.

Investment suggestion: Considering the expected changes in coal prices in the past two years, we adjust the company in 2019?
The EPS forecast for 2021 is 1.

79/2.

02/2.

06 yuan (previous forecast 1).

73/1.

99/2.

24 yuan), in accordance with the rules of the Hong Kong stock market statement, the EPS of Hong Kong stocks is expected to be 1.

99/2.

06/2.

21 created, current price 9.

56 yuan / 6.

47 consumption, corresponding to 2019 A / H shares P / E5 / 3x, respectively, we respectively give A / H shares 8/6 times P / E in 2019, corresponding target prices are 14 yuan / 12 to reduce costs and maintain “buy”grade.